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This match looks like it could be closely contested but Davydenko’s odds are better.

ATP tennis is a lot more wide open than it used to be.  Underdogs have a much better chance of taking down prestigious titles now than they did in the past.  That Nikolay Davydenko and Juan Martin Del Potro, two players that were both longshots pre-tournament, are meeting in the final is not terribly surprising at this point on the ATP tour.

Nikolay Davydenko and Juan Martin Del Potro will be meeting for the 4th time in their careers and for the first time in 2009.  Davydenko leads the head to head series between the two players 2-1 and he looks like the correct pick for the match.

Here are the prices for the two players, each to win the final:

Juan Martin Del Potro: -150 (2/3;)
Nikolay Davydenko: +130 (13/10;)

Davydenko has been absolutely dynamite, not just in London, but post-US Open.  His angles, depth, and pace are better than anyone else’s on tour at the moment and he has already proven so much by beating Roger Federer and Robin Soderling, who is on top form, in back to back matches.

Incidentally defeating Federer and Soderling is also something that Del Potro has done in back to back matches, but in Davydenko’s case, his rise to the finals has taken place in the broader context of sustained high level play, best exemplified by his Masters level title in Shanghai in October.  With Del Potro this is the first time we have seen anything resembling world class tennis since the US Open final as he struggled with injury and dropped matches to relatively weak competition.

This match, as one would expect and hope for in the season finale, looks like a virtual ‘coin toss’ in the betting market though Davydenko should probably be priced as a -105 (20/21) very marginal favorite.  Either player can take this final down, but Davydenko is the one with the better odds and therefore with a better return on a winning bet.  Davydenko’s game at the ATP World Tour Finals has also been marginally more impressive than Del Potro’s, especially in his match against Rafael Nadal.

The recommendation is to take Dayvdenko, who is a better conditioned athlete than Del Potro, in the final.

Watch Davydenko vs Del Potro live at > sports > live streaming tennis!

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