The Kentucky Derby For The Amateur Horse Race Fan
The Kentucky Derby takes place every year on its traditional date of the first Saturday in May. This is a race that many people follow and try to handicap even if theyre not typically horse racing enthusiasts. Understanding race horses is hard work, and a discipline unto itself.
Despite the complexity of understanding horse racing, there are a few basic rules that can help the novice watch the Kentucky Derby with a greater degree of enjoyment. Until recently, the Derby was a race dominated by the favorite. In the 1970’s great horses like Secretariat and Seattle Slew blew away the field but since Spectacular Bid’s winning run in 1979 there have been only a couple of favorites to win the big race. While a serious horse player might not want to categorically dismiss the popular favorite, for the horse racing novice this is a helpful way to narrow down the field.
So why has the favorite done so poorly in recent years? One theory suggests that it is a by-product of the hype surrounding the race. Novice horse fans back the favorite, making it more of a popularity contest than anything else. The reality is that the horse with the most hype is not always the best horse.
Don’t forget to pay attention to the starting position of the horses, known as ‘post position’ in racing slang. The historical data suggests that a Derby winner is most likely to come from positions 1 through 5, while the outer positions (11 through 20) have produced relatively few winners. This is something of an over simplification, but for the purpose of understanding a single race it won’t hurt to just rule out all horses starting in a bad position.
A couple more factors to consider are the horse’s gender and breeding lineage. A couple of simple rules can be applied here–first of all, forget all horses that aren’t intact males (geldings and fillies). Over 90% of all Derby winners have been intact males. Then, eliminate any horse that wasn’t born in the state of Kentucky. This stipulation is starting to change, but for the time being is a good rule to apply for the novice. Over 80% of all Derby winners have been born in Kentucky.
Also, take a look at dosage index numbers. For the novice, there’s no real reason to worry about what they mean or how they’re figured but the general rule of thumb is to look for a horse with a dosage index of 4.00 or less. Since 1984, over half of all Derby winners have fit this criteria.
For a more serious introduction to horse racing, check out the many books available on the subject at any large bookstore. For a casual fan who just follows the ‘big races’ these rules will help you get a decent grasp on the Kentucky Derby and understand who will win and why.
Ross Everett is a freelance sports writer specializing in casino gambling, fine dining and sports betting. He has appeared on a number of TV and radio programs offering strategies for successful NFL football betting. He lives in the Nevada desert with three Jack Russell Terriers and a pet llama. He is currently writing a biography of former NFL quarterback Jim Plunkett.
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